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2015 Academy Awards Predictions/Results

Okay, let’s get this over with. My predictions for the Oscars will be presented below with minimal commentary. I’ll save my outrage for the night of the actual ceremony, when I’ll post the winners and my reactions in red text. Though I will say that the horrendous nominations oversights made for some great awards races. The competitions are much closer to call than they’ve been for quite some time, so at least we can look forward to a more exciting night.

Still, I’ve got a strong record of correctly guessing at least two out of three. Last year, I only missed three out of 24. Here’s hoping for luck that’s just as good this year.

Looks like the red carpet is finally over. Let’s get to it.

And NPH hits us with a racial joke right out of the gate. Then NPH starts singing about how no one’s drinking, then Cumberbatch is there with a flask and a “fuck you.” The night’s off to a strong start.

…Anna Kendrick, I love you, but NPH was doing just fine before you came along. And Jack Black isn’t helping matters either.

…Actually, I take that back. Jack Black’s intervention did a great job of addressing all the cynicism surrounding the Oscars and Hollywood. It was a neat little reality check, though this whole opening segment is a fantastic love letter to movies past and present.

And just like that, NPH deservedly became the next go-to Oscars host. Here’s hoping AMPAS can take him away from the Tonys for another few years in the future. So far, he’s doing a fantastic job of making an argument for why the Oscars are still relevant and why movies still matter, with just the right amount of self-effacing humor. This is easily the best hosting job I think I’ve ever seen, though that’s not saying much.

Best Supporting Actor

Should Win: Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Did Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

It sucks that Ruffalo didn’t get the Oscar for the best performance of his career, but Simmons is a superb character actor who’s had this coming for a long time. Even if the character is a malicious exaggeration of musical education, there’s no denying that he played it well. And good on Simmons for keeping it humble and funny in a heartfelt way.

***

Now we have the host’s running joke for the ceremony. The concept of the host’s Oscar predictions is a little clunky, but at least I’m intrigued. Plus, involving the folks behind the scenes of the Oscars was a neat touch. I’m not interested enough to follow the livestream of the fucking glass box, but still.

***

Are we piping in the orchestra again this year? For fuck’s sake.

Adam Levine begins singing, and I immediately start wishing that Keira Knightley’s version of the song was the one that got nominated. No chance of a duet? Anything to distract from Levine’s godawful voice? No? Well, okay then. At least the band is up onstage playing with him.

“Tell Me If You Wanna Go Home” should’ve been the one to get nominated, dammit!

***

And NPH just made a joke about how absolutely no one in the whole country appreciates the ridiculously expensive gift bags. The occasional clunker joke aside, I love the job he’s doing.

Best Costume Design

Should Win: Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Will Win: Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Did Win: Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel

I’m just grateful that it didn’t go to Maleficent or Into the Woods.

***

Okay, NPH, that “with her spoon” joke was just awful. Please don’t make me take back any of the compliments I’ve already written down.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Should Win: Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White, Guardians of the Galaxy

Will Win: Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Did Win: Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier, The Grand Budapest Hotel

In retrospect, this one absolutely deserved to win over GotG.

***

Hi, Channing Tatum! Sorry Jupiter Ascending sucked so bad!

***

Yeah, it sucks that we all have to learn how to pronounce “Chiwetel Ejiofor,” doesn’t it, NPH?

Best Foreign Language Film

Should Win: No preference

Will Win: Ida

Did Win: Ida

Still haven’t seen it, but going with the nominee that landed a few other nominations is usually a sure bet. Good thing the wrap-up music started playing. Pawel Pawlikowski would keep talking until he ran out of words. He’s hopelessly flustered, bless his heart.

***

Shirley MacLaine is still alive?! Holy cow.

***

If Eddie Redmayne wins, can he please deliver his acceptance speech with the voice he used in Jupiter Ascending?

***

Now NPH introduces us to the “seat-fillers.” And that was our filler segment. How fitting.

***

This “Everything is Awesome!!!” segment is just as colorful and batshit crazy as we could ever have hoped. It’s a thing of beauty. And then Batman comes in (Will Arnett himself, wearing the costume from Batman Forever!), followed by a keyboardist with a Devo hat. This is so freaking gorgeous. I love it.

***

Ooh, the short films. Always the toughest to predict. Good luck, everyone!

Best Live Action Short

Should Win: No preference

Will Win: Boogaloo and Graham

Did Win: The Phone Call

So far, the real losers tonight are the poor musicians playing the walk-off music.

Best Documentary Short

Should Win: No preference

Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Did Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

***

Maureen O’Hara, Hayao Miyazaki, and Harry Belafonte went this long without lifetime achievement awards?! Better late than never, I suppose.

***

And NPH called the Academy on snubbing David Oyelowo. And somehow, bringing Oyelowo in on the joke actually didn’t suck. Phenomenal.

***

They follow up that performance of “Everything is Awesome!!!” with this Tim McGraw downer? Whose bright idea was that?!

***

Birdman parody? Big Bird did it better, though the Miles Teller cameo was a neat touch, and the “noble profession” punchline was cute. Though if NPH ends his hosting gig the way Birdman ends, we’ll be reading a very different headline tomorrow.

Best Sound Mixing

Should Win: Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley, Whiplash

Will Win: John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin, American Sniper

Did Win: Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley, Whiplash

I am so thrilled to get this one wrong. I don’t care how much Oscar buzz American Sniper had going into the ceremony, the music in Whiplash was incredible and superbly presented. The acceptance speech was awful, though.

Best Sound Editing

Should Win: Brent Burge and Jason Canovas, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Will Win: Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, American Sniper

Did Win: Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, American Sniper

Nope. Nope. This one should go to the one that creates brand-new sounds that don’t really exist. It should have gone to The HobbitInterstellar, or even Guardians of the Galaxy. But a war movie? Fuck no.

***

Fuck, even Meryl Streep knows that her getting nominated is a cliche.

Best Supporting Actress

Should Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Did Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Should’ve gotten Best Actress, but I guess this’ll have to do. God knows she earned those accolades. And it’s clear that Arquette put a lot of thought and effort into that acceptance speech. Even her fellow nominees were glad to see her win after that speech.

Incidentally, Twitter informs me that Streep has never had an Oscar losing streak longer than two years. We’ll see how she does next year.

***

When NPH is good tonight, he’s great. When he’s bad, we get shit like that PETA joke.

***

Can we please stop trying to make Rita Ora into a star? It’s never gonna happen.

Best Visual Effects

Should Win: Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher, Interstellar

Will Win: Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher, Interstellar

Did Win: Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher, Interstellar

Wasn’t impressed with the movie, but damn if it didn’t look flawless. Say what you will about Nolan, but he knows how to make a movie look perfect. Incidentally, I love how the acceptance speeches are being used as opportunities to promote important social issues. It’s another argument for why the Oscars still matter.

***

Kevin Hart is the next great up-and-coming comedic talent? Really?

Best Animated Short

Should Win: No preference

Will Win: Feast

Did Win: Feast

And Disney wins for Best Animated Short like we all knew they would. Still, this was a great one.

***

NPH is really taking the Academy to task for all the nomination snubs, isn’t he? I love it.

Best Animated Feature

Should Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Did Win: Big Hero 6

Holy cow. I guess I severely underestimated the cultural impact Big Hero 6 had. And of course, I thought HtTYD2 was the better film. That movie already has a sequel in development and Big Hero 6 doesn’t, so Disney had better get cranking.

Then again, we all know what the year’s best animated film really was, don’t we?

***

Wait, wait, wait. The AMPAS is predominately made of white men over 40, and its president is a black woman? I’m genuinely shocked and pleased to learn about this. The reference to the Sony hacking incident and The Interview, however, was significantly less surprising.

Best Production Design

Should Win: Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Will Win: Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Did Win: Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Damn straight this went to the Wes Anderson picture.

***

Hi, Jessica Chastain! Sorry you didn’t get nominated this year, even though you totally should have!

Best Cinematography

Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman

Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman

Did Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel looked amazing, but come on. Plus, back-to-back wins for Grandmaster Lubezki? Yeah, that Tree of Life snub is totally forgiven now.

***

As long as we have a commercial break, why the hell did NPH mention A Million Ways to Die in the West?! If he really had “pooped in a hat” onstage, it would have been just as awkward, uncomfortable, and unfunny.

***

They brought out Meryl Streep to introduce the “In Memoriam” segment instead of NPH. The way things are going tonight, I’d say that was a good call.

This segment is never easy to watch. Every year is a bad year for celebrity deaths, and having to relive the previous year of losses is just painful. What makes it even worse is that as a child of the ’90s, I’m rapidly approaching the age when my childhood icons are going to be dying on a regular basis. I’m not looking forward to it. Just losing Robin Williams was agony enough for me.

I’m still not entirely sure if getting Jennifer Hudson is an upgrade from Bette Midler last year. That aside, why can’t we have more tribute graphics playing while she sings? I’m sure there are plenty more deceased icons of cinema that didn’t get a mention — there always are.

Best Film Editing

Should Win: Tom Cross, Whiplash

Will Win: Sandra Adair, Boyhood

Did Win: Tom Cross, Whiplash

Much as I love Boyhood, this award absolutely went to the right candidate. The editing work in Whiplash was an absolute masterpiece. It kills me to say it, but the editing in Boyhood was surprisingly subdued, given the sheer mass of film that I’m sure was shot over twelve years.

***

Wow, is Terence Howard campaigning for these movies? Or is he trying to win an Oscar for himself? The voting’s over, dude!

***

Yes, NPH, stick with the jokes about Oscar snubs. That’s what you’re good at. Though it looks like he’s already sick of it himself.

Best Documentary Feature

Should Win: No preference

Will Win: Citizenfour

Did Win: Citizenfour

Yeah, everyone saw this one coming. The Oscars just had to try and stay relevant with the whole Edward Snowden thing. I hear that the crew of this documentary will be characters in the upcoming biopic. Laura Poitras herself will be played by Melissa Leo. I’m not even kidding.

***

Well, that was a lame punchline for the whole Octavia Spencer running joke. I’m sure the whole predictions list inside the box will be just as disappointing.

Speaking of disappointing, won’t it suck when “Glory” gets the award? I mean, sure the song is awful, but the Academy needs to look socially relevant without giving Selma any other nominations or awards. Though to be fair, this is still better than at least 90 percent of the rap getting any kind of airplay in the past decade.

I look forward to seeing an NWA cover performance when Straight Outta Compton gets nominated next year.

***

And Idina Menzel gets justification for John Travolta’s flub last year. Glorious. Every meme last year was totally worth that payoff.

Best Original Song

Should Win: “Tell Me If You Wanna Go Home,” Begin Again

Will Win: “Glory,” Selma

Did Win: “Glory,” Selma

I’m so glad that Common and John Legend are making the most out of this acceptance speech. Someone needs to say all of this, and it’s not like anyone else from Selma will get the chance tonight. Though we can look forward to Ava DuVernay and David Oyelowo getting a fuckton of awards and nominations as an apology further down the line.

***

…Okay, so it’s the 50th anniversary of The Sound of Music. Worthy of recognition, sure, but not here. It seems terribly out of place, especially since this ceremony has been mercifully free of montages so far. Except for the Best Picture montages, of course, but those don’t count.

And now they’re bringing in Lady Fucking Gaga to pay tribute to The Sound of Music?! I mean, don’t get me wrong, it’s nice to be reminded that she can actually sing, and she’s absolutely killing it, but what the flipping fuck is going on here?!

We’ve got Adam Levine singing a Best Song nominee, we’ve got Lady Gaga singing Julie Andrews… what’s next, Ed Sheeran singing from Chicago?!

Then Julie Andrews comes in to be recognized and give props to Lady Gaga. How nice. Though seriously, WHAT THE FUCK JUST HAPPENED AND WHY?!?!

Look, it’s always a pleasure seeing Julie Andrews, but why is she still talking about the goddamn Sound of Music? What does this have to do with anything?!

Best Original Score

Should Win: Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Will Win: Johann Johannsson, The Theory of Everything

Did Win: Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel

I’m just glad Interstellar didn’t win. I know Hans Zimmer is a grandmaster and all, but sweet Christ on a pogo stick did that music suck. As for Desplat, he’s no less a genius composer and I’m thrilled that he got some recognition. With a double nomination, no less.

Best Original Screenplay

Should Win: Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

Will Win: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Did Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., Armando Bo, Birdman

Whoa, I was way the fuck off on this one. I somehow didn’t think the Academy would give the award to a script with this many writers, and I still think that Birdman wasn’t the best script of the year. Whatever.

Incidentally, this show is now officially running into overtime and we’re only just on the screenplay categories. Thanks a lot, Lady Gaga.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Should Win: Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

Will Win: Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

Did Win: Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

Moore gets a reward for all the sterling dialogue he wrote and The Imitation Game gets a token award for all the nominations it unfairly got and never stood a chance of winning. And luckily — as with Common, John Legend, and Selma — it’s good that Moore is taking the time to make an overwhelmingly great acceptance speech on behalf of all the Imitation Game cast and crew who won’t get the podium tonight.

Best Director

Should Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Did Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

These nominees all did stellar work, but Birdman was a masterwork in directing. It takes a true genius to put together a film the way Birdman was put together. Also, Innaritu put together a fine acceptance speech, complete with a quirky little good luck charm.

Best Actor

Should Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Did Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Such a fucking shame this guy won it instead of Keaton. Especially since this is probably the only decent performance he’s put in so far. Then again, I guess one decent performance is all it takes to win an Oscar. I’m so glad Redmayne seems to know that this could go away at any moment, because I expect it will. Though given his amazing performance in this film, I hope I’m wrong. Anyway, it’s not like Jupiter Ascending could have been entirely his fault, right?

Oh, and after Selma and The Imitation Game got jaw-dropping token acceptance speeches with incredible social relevance, does anyone else feel that Redmayne squandered his shot?

Best Actress

Should Win: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Did Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

And Julianne Moore gets her Oscar just for being Julianne Moore. Congratulations. Then again, this was a terrible year for leading female roles, and maybe we should make Rosamund Pike work a little bit harder for her Oscar. Given her career so far, this could easily be a fluke. With Moore? Seventh Son be damned, this performance was clearly no fluke. And even though I maintain that we didn’t need a great performance or a movie to put a face on such a common illness, a higher profile for Alzheimer’s is never a bad thing.

Incidentally, does anyone else find it kind of hilarious that Kristen Stewart got mentioned in an acceptance speech at the fucking Academy Awards?

***

Of course no one tried to take the key to the box because we’re way over time and NO ONE FUCKING CARES!!!

…Okay, so the envelope was a prediction of all the meme-worthy moments from tonight. Clever. Not nearly worth the set-up, but clever.

Best Picture

Should Win: Boyhood

Will Win: Birdman

Did Win: Birdman

And Sean Penn gets his moment to crack a semi-racist joke while drawing out the suspense.

I maintain that Boyhood was the better film, though of course it was predictable that the voters went the “Argo” route. Ironic, considering how anti-Hollywood that movie was.

TOTAL GUESSED: 18/24

Considering how close the races were this year, I’d say that was a pretty good predictions list. The ceremony this year was incredible when it was good and insufferable when it was bad. But since there were fewer bad moments than in years past, I’m willing to call that an improvement. Thanks for joining me tonight, and let’s keep on hoping for a better year in 2015. I’m out.

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