I know I’m a little bit late this year, which is all the more reason to get right to it. Here’s my list of predictions for who will win at this year’s Academy Awards, presented with minimal commentary until my annual Oscars liveblog.<\/p>\n
Thank you all for joining me here! As of this typing, there’s only 10 more minutes of red carpet drivel to go. The incomparable Chris Rock is hosting, and we’ve got a lot of great potential winners. Let’s see what fun is in store for us tonight.<\/span><\/p>\n ***<\/span><\/p>\n I didn’t catch all of that opening animation. Was “Awards Campaigning” anywhere in that stuff that made up the Oscar?<\/span><\/p>\n And now we get a neat little montage to pay tribute to so many 2015 movies that won’t win. As if anyone cares that\u00a0Despicable Me<\/em> and\u00a0Tomorrowland<\/em> didn’t get nominated. Incidentally, I wonder what the hell that montage would look like to someone who’s barely seen one or two of those movies.<\/span><\/p>\n ***<\/span><\/p>\n And Chris Rock comes out swinging with the race jokes right out of the gate. And he’s killing it. Keep it up, man. “How come it’s only unemployed people who tell you to quit something?”<\/span><\/p>\n Of course Chris Rock was hysterical and whip-smart in his opening monologue. All those months of preparation clearly paid off. Then again, we’ve all seen Oscar hosts nail the opening only to crash and burn through the rest of the ceremony. We’ll see how things go.<\/span><\/p>\n Incidentally, who’s directing this ceremony? The cuts and camera movements are all over the place.<\/span><\/p>\n ***<\/span><\/p>\n Of course a writer wrote the stuff on your teleprompter, Charlize. Like anyone in showbiz would openly recognize the importance of writers in such a way. Especially if it means campaigning for them to actually get paid.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Original Screenplay<\/strong><\/u> The screenwriting award went to the film that glorifies writers. Whodathunk? But in all seriousness, this screenplay was fantastic and I’m thrilled that it won. Also, good of the writers to acknowledge the sex abuse survivors in their acceptance speech.<\/span><\/p>\n ***<\/span><\/p>\n Wow, the band is under the stage this time and not just piped in from someplace else! Very nice. Huge improvement over previous years.<\/span><\/p>\n Hi, Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling! Thanks for that preview of your onscreen repartee. Can’t wait to see more of it when you’re being written and directed by Shane Black.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Adapted Screenplay<\/strong><\/u> I guess giving it to\u00a0The Martian<\/em>\u00a0would’ve been too easy, since the novel practically was its own screenplay. Also, I’d be surprised and amazed if that was the last time we got a message about liberal politics in an acceptance speech.<\/span><\/p>\n Incidentally, the candidates this year are being arranged according to the filmmaking process. It’s a neat idea. Let’s see if they stick to it.<\/span><\/p>\n Wow, a sketch inserting black characters into the Best Picture nominees. And they even got some of the actors to reshoot the scenes accordingly. They’re really not holding back with this controversy, are they?<\/span><\/p>\n Holy crap, Sarah Silverman’s never looked better. Her presentation here to lampoon Bond is almost enough to make me forget that I’m about to listen to that incredibly godawful James Bond theme that somehow got nominated.<\/span><\/p>\n What in the seven high holy hells is going on with Sam Smith’s voice?! As if the song wasn’t bad enough to start with, he’s singing in this godawful high pitch in some weird language with no consonants.\u00a0Spectre<\/em> was one of the most expensive films ever made, and I’d love to know what the fuck this song cost out of the reported $250 million budget.<\/span><\/p>\n Hi, Henry Cavill! Sorry\u00a0The Man from U.N.C.L.E.<\/em> sucked so hard, but at least you’ve got that awesome movie coming up soon! Oh, and Kerry Washington gets to introduce a candidate as well? Good, I was starting to worry that she wouldn’t talk at all.<\/span><\/p>\n Oh, we’re already on to Best Supporting Actress? Before all that stuff about production design and whatnot? Well, I guess that whole “arranged by creative process” gimmick didn’t last long.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Supporting Actress<\/strong><\/u> Vikander was in like seven movies in 2015. This wasn’t even her best performance (Ex Machina<\/em>, anyone?), but I’m thrilled that she’s getting some recognition. Just wait until she hits her stride, the woman is going places.<\/span><\/p>\n Quoth director Lexi Alexander via Twitter: “If there wasn’t a Best Actress category, there would be about as many female Oscar winners in acting as there are in directing.”<\/span><\/p>\n I doubt it’s a coincidence that they brought out Cate Blanchett to present Best Costume Design, since she was in two of the nominated films and both of those were done by the same person!<\/span><\/p>\n Best Costume Design And a\u00a0Fury Road<\/em> reference right out of the gate! This is a very pleasant surprise. I don’t know what else there is to say, except that Sandy Powell was the odds-on favorite for both of her films, but Bevan absolutely deserved this. Which makes it all the sadder that her big socially relevant statement is exactly when she started getting played off.<\/span><\/p>\n I’m glad Carell specified that Tina Fey had been drinking. I’m not used to seeing her play stupid.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Production Design<\/strong><\/u> What a lovely day indeed! There was never any doubt that this supremely detailed work was the most deserving entry. The acceptance speeches were short, sweet, and funny. Great stuff.<\/span><\/p>\n They just made a movie together. And based on what I’ve heard in interviews, this is still the first time Margot Robbie and Jared Leto have met. And once again, Leto proves that he really is legitimately crazy.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Makeup and Hairstyling<\/strong><\/u> This was a toss-up, but I’m genuinely glad that\u00a0Fury Road<\/em> got an award over\u00a0The Revenant<\/em>. Again. Please don’t let this be the last time.<\/span><\/p>\n I fully expect that guy in a bear costume to be a running gag throughout the night. If he doesn’t storm the stage during DiCaprio’s acceptance speech, I’ll be very disappointed.<\/span><\/p>\n ***<\/span><\/p>\n I was wondering where Chris Rock was going with the “Based on a real story” gag. Very funny, and it’s nice that some of the real-life subjects are in the Dolby Theater tonight.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Cinematography<\/strong><\/u> Sucks that Roger Deakins will have to wait at least another year. Lubezki is indisputably a grandmaster, and there really were no losers in this batch of nominees. But it sucks that the gorgeous 70mm film will only have to settle for a nomination. Incidentally, good on Lubezki for acknowledging his fellow extraordinary nominees. Always a classy move. Why are we still pretending that the categories are being presented in the proper filmmaking order? Best Actress already blew that to shit.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Film Editing<\/strong><\/span> I absolutely love this movie, but\u00a0The Big Short<\/em> did a masterful job of mixing together so many disparate elements. Ah, well. Whatever it takes to let the casual filmgoers at home know which film is\u00a0really<\/span> the best picture of 2015.<\/span><\/p>\n Wow, it’s like the Academy only just remembered that it’s Black History Month. I’m\u00a0frankly amazed we’ve gone this far without a reference to\u00a0Dreamgirls<\/em>.’<\/span><\/p>\n I love it when costars of upcoming movies get to present together. Seeing Chadwick Boseman and Chris Evans together onstage gets me so much more pumped to see them beat the crap out of each other in\u00a0Civil War<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Sound Editing<\/strong><\/u> Was that a technical error or did something get bleeped out? Personally, I think that BB-8 would have been enough to earn the award, but oh well. Any award that goes to\u00a0Fury Road<\/span><\/em> is an award well spent.<\/span><\/p>\n It’s always an uphill battle trying to describe the difference between sound editing and sound mixing. Though I appreciate the effort that keeps getting made year after year.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Sound Mixing<\/strong><\/u> Yeah, no contest here. Incidentally, I love how blunt and excited and upfront the\u00a0Fury Road<\/em> guys are in their acceptance speeches.<\/span><\/p>\n Wait, the Academy is giving Andy Serkis his own montage? After all the times they’ve snubbed him? What’s going on here?!<\/span><\/p>\n Oh, right. They’re bringing him on for visual effects. Because stop-motion isn’t acting. Even though he was introduced with a quotation about acting. Get your shit together, Academy, he’s an incredible talent!<\/span><\/p>\n Best Visual Effects<\/strong><\/span> Holy fucking shit!<\/span>\u00a0The acceptance speech wasn’t kidding, this is hugely unexpected. I don’t know if the other candidates split the vote, and I really don’t care. This film was a hugely impressive VFX showcase on such a minimal budget, and anything that gets the movie more publicity is fine by me. Everyone involved really earned this.<\/span><\/p>\n Oh, C-3PO and R2-D2 get a sketch. How delightful, especially after they got shafted in screen time in Force Awakens<\/em>. And I see Threepio has his old arm back. How nice. Also, what a neat little tribute to John Williams.<\/span><\/p>\n ***<\/span><\/p>\n Aw, no. The host is in the audience. This never goes well. Though the sight of Hollywood A-listers buying Girl Scout cookies (especially when they’re all hungry anyway) is admittedly funny. Especially when Chris Rock is using the chance to call everyone out on how rich they are.<\/span><\/p>\n The Minions?! Never mind that those annoying little bastards are overexposed already, who the hell decided to give this gig to characters who speak in gibberish?!<\/span><\/p>\n Best Animated Short Film<\/strong><\/u> Weird. This one didn’t have the best animation of all the nominees, and there was nothing new in terms of story. I’m frankly not sure how it even got nominated, but oh well. In any case, I appreciate the acceptance speech that gave the story more context. This is the first Oscar brought home to Chile, huh? Fascinating.<\/span><\/p>\n They brought out Buzz and Woody to present in honor of\u00a0Toy Story<\/em>‘s 20th anniversary. That’s some good nostalgia right there. I remember when they presented Best Animated Feature in the wake of\u00a0Toy Story 2<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Animated Feature Film Damn straight. The other nominees are all incredible, but\u00a0Inside Out<\/em> is an instant classic. Also, that acceptance speech was just lovely.<\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win:<\/strong> Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer — Spotlight<\/em>
\nWill Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer — Spotlight<\/em>
\nDid Win:<\/span><\/strong> Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer —\u00a0Spotlight<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win: <\/strong>Drew Goddard — The Martian<\/em>
\nWill Win:<\/strong> Adam McKay and Charles Randolph —\u00a0The Big Short<\/em>
\nDid Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Adam McKay and Charles Randolph —\u00a0The Big Short<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win:<\/strong> Jennifer Jason Leigh — The Hateful Eight<\/em>
\nWill Win: <\/strong>Alicia Vikander — The Danish<\/em> Girl<\/em>
\nDid Win:<\/strong>\u00a0Alicia Vikander —\u00a0The Danish Girl<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/u>Should Win:<\/strong> Sandy Powell —\u00a0Cinderella<\/em>
\nWill Win:<\/strong> Sandy Powell —\u00a0Carol
\n<\/em>Did Win:<\/strong> Jenny Bevan —\u00a0Mad Max: Fury Road<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win:<\/strong> Colin Gibson and Lisa Thompson — Mad Max: Fury Road<\/em>
\nWill Win:<\/strong>\u00a0Colin Gibson and Lisa Thompson — Mad Max: Fury Road
\n<\/em>Did Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Colin Gibson and Lisa Thompson — Mad Max: Fury Road<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win: <\/strong>Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman, and Robert Pandini — The Revenant<\/em>
\nWill Win:<\/strong>\u00a0Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega, and Damian Martin —\u00a0Mad Max: Fury Road<\/em>
\nDid Win:<\/strong>\u00a0Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega, and Damian Martin —\u00a0Mad Max: Fury Road<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win:<\/strong> Robert Richardson — The Hateful Eight<\/em>
\nWill Win:<\/strong> Emmanuel Lubezki —\u00a0The Revenant
\n<\/em>Did Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Emmanuel Lubezki —\u00a0The Revenant<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\n<\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win:<\/strong> Hank Corwin —\u00a0The Big Short<\/em>
\nWill Win:<\/strong> Margaret Sixel —\u00a0Mad Max: Fury Road
\n<\/em>Did Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Margaret Sixel —\u00a0Mad Max: Fury Road<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win:<\/strong> Matthew Wood and David Acord —\u00a0 Star Wars: The Force Awakens<\/em>
\nWill Win:<\/strong> Mark Mangini and David White —\u00a0Mad Max: Fury Road
\n<\/em>Did Win: <\/strong>Mark Mangini and David White —\u00a0Mad Max: Fury Road<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win:<\/strong> Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff, and Ben Osmo — Mad Max: Fury Road<\/em>
\nWill Win:<\/strong> Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff, and Ben Osmo\u00a0—\u00a0Mad Max: Fury Road
\n<\/em>Did Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff, and Ben Osmo\u00a0—\u00a0Mad Max: Fury Road\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win:<\/strong> Chris Corbould, Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, and Neal Scanlan —\u00a0Star Wars: The Force Awakens<\/em>
\nWill Win:<\/strong>\u00a0Chris Corbould, Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, and Neal Scanlan —\u00a0Star Wars: The Force Awakens
\n<\/em>Did Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Mark Williams Ardington, Sara Bennett, Paul Norris, and Andrew Whiteburst —\u00a0Ex Machina<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\nShould Win:<\/strong> World of Tomorrow<\/em>
\nWill Win:<\/strong> Sanjay’s Super Team
\n<\/em>Did Win:<\/strong> Bear Story<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
\n<\/strong><\/u>Should Win:<\/strong> Inside Out
\n<\/em>Will Win:<\/strong> Inside Out
\n<\/em>Did Win:<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Inside Out<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n