Okay, folks, it’s that time again!<\/p>\n
The black text is written on February 13th, when I’ll be presenting my predictions and preferences for the Academy Awards with minimal commentary. The red text will be written on February 26th, during my annual Oscars liveblog. I try to get three out of four right, but I’ve been pretty good at getting two out of three in previous years. Follow along at home!<\/p>\n
Looks like the Red Carpet is finally just about over. Let’s do this!<\/span><\/p>\n Opening up with Justin Timberlake, huh? Well, his song was nominated this year, so that makes sense. And he’s still a hell of a performer. Still kind of underwhelming, though.<\/span><\/p>\n You know what? Upon reflection, I think I’d prefer a song-and-dance number over yet another montage or some sketch. It’s a change of pace, if nothing else. But then Jimmy Kimmel — the ACTUAL host — comes out looking like a putz. Even Kimmel comes out saying as much out of the gate.<\/span><\/p>\n I don’t know what Kimmel is doing here, but I’ve seen worse. At least he’s gracious enough to acknowledge how out of his depth he is. Especially in terms of politics. Incidentally, kudos on Matt Damon for having the good humor to make himself the butt of so many awful jokes.<\/span><\/p>\n “Black people saved NASA and white people saved jazz. That’s progress.” Wow, Kimmel is all over the place here. Though to be fair, so is the news.<\/span><\/p>\n Kimmel took a while to warm up, but his characteristic lack of fear is finally kicking in. “Too often, the Academy only recognizes movies that people have seen.” And god damn, he really let Meryl Streep have it with both barrels. “She has phoned it in for more than 50 films.”<\/span><\/p>\n Oh, we get a montage after all. A montage of Oscar acceptance speeches, no less. *yawn*<\/span><\/p>\n “You’ve Got a Friend In Me” to introduce Alicia Vikander for Best Supporting Actor? I don’t see the connection, but whatever.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Supporting Actor<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Dev Patel,\u00a0Lion<\/em><\/p>\n Will Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Mahershala Ali,\u00a0Moonlight<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Mahershala Ali,\u00a0Moonlight<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n There were no losers in this category. Every single one of these performances was amazing. That said, Mahershala Ali is a fine talent who’s more than paid his dues, and I’d be thrilled to see if this gets him more high-profile work.<\/span><\/p>\n That was a lovely acceptance speech. And just like that, we’re already over time.<\/span><\/p>\n Some clever jabs from Jimmy Kimmel. Clearly, nobody’s worried about running over time. That was a terrible joke about makeup, and Kate McKinnon made it funny.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Makeup and Hairstyling<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:<\/strong> No preference<\/p>\n Will Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo,\u00a0Star Trek Beyond<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson,\u00a0Suicide Squad<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Whoa. The more controversial film won. That was a shocker. No denying it was a worthy victory, though. Damn shame this category is drying up in light of the nascent mo-cap.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Costume Design<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:<\/strong> Mary Zophres,\u00a0La La Land<\/em><\/p>\n Will Win:<\/strong> Madeline Fontaine,\u00a0Jackie<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Colleen Atwood,\u00a0Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n I had been warned to never bet against Colleen Atwood. Silly foolish me. But hey, even Colleen looks shocked, so I guess I wasn’t the only one who underestimated her. Also, this is another category in which there really weren’t any losers.<\/span><\/p>\n Of all the clips to show from\u00a0Titanic<\/em>, the Rolex commercial had to pick a one with Bill Paxton front and center. Damn unfortunate timing. #RIP.<\/span><\/p>\n “Hidden Figures<\/em> is a testament to what women can accomplish when they have to pee.” I can’t imagine how Kimmel’s presentations would look to someone who hasn’t actually seen the nominated films.<\/span><\/p>\n They brought out the actual Katherine Johnson? Holy shit, that was sweet of them! She couldn’t really do much at her age, but it’s sweet that they dolled her up and gave her the chance to say “thank you” in response to a long-overdue standing ovation.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Documentary Feature<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:<\/strong>\u00a0No preference<\/p>\n Will Win:\u00a0<\/strong>O.J.: Made in America<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0O.J.: Made in America<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n This was a highly tough one to call.\u00a013th<\/em> and\u00a0I Am Not Your Negro<\/em> both had a lot of heat behind them, but there seems to be a strange kind of “O.J. Simpson” nostalgia going on, and betting on that paid off. Plus, if it raises the visibility of racial profiling in the justice system that was also the subject of\u00a013th<\/em>, so much the better.<\/span><\/p>\n Good God, Dwayne Johnson has a great sense of humor. Also, if there’s anything to unite the planet, it’s not Dwayne Johnson performing — It’s Lin-Manuel motherfucking Miranda performing. Though Auli’i Cravalho is fantastic as well. She’s so much better here than she was in the actual film!<\/span><\/p>\n Seriously, Cravalho is just standing there singing — no acting, no dancing, nothing but the dancers behind her — and she’s crushing<\/span> it. This had better be the start of a long and prosperous career for her.<\/span><\/p>\n Hi, Madame President! Thanks for all your work in making the Oscars more diverse. Way to make good on that promise a year ago.<\/span><\/p>\n No, art doesn’t belong to a single faith or creed. It belongs to Disney, Viacom, Time Warner, and Comcast.<\/span><\/p>\n Mid-ceremony jokes from the host are typically the worst, but raining candy from the sky? That was inspired. “Maybe next year, we should give out the awards this way!” Beautifully done.<\/span><\/p>\n Sofia Boutella is presenting?! God damn, she’s come a long way in such little time. Thrilled to see it.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Sound Editing<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:<\/strong> Sylvain Bellemare,\u00a0Arrival<\/em><\/p>\n Will Win:<\/strong> Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright,\u00a0Hacksaw Ridge<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Sylvain Bellemare,\u00a0<\/span>Arrival<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Well, this is an unexpected pleasure. So glad this went to the alien feature instead of the more obvious war choice. Thrilled Bellemare did the best he could with that acceptance speech, as it’s likely the only one that film will get tonight.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Sound Mixing<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, and Mac Ruth,\u00a013 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi<\/em><\/p>\n Will Win:<\/strong> Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow,\u00a0La La Land<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace,\u00a0Hacksaw Ridge<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n This guy wasn’t nearly as smart with his acceptance speech — again, for what may be the only award the film wins. Very sweet little anecdote about O’Connell’s mother, though.<\/span><\/p>\n Jimmy Kimmel and Seth McFarlane are both shock comics who’ve emceed at the Comedy Central Roast. The difference is that Kimmel has the skill to parlay his shock humor into something faster and more intelligent, and it’s serving him well here.<\/span><\/p>\n And seriously, Vince Vaughn wasn’t kidding. It’s great that the other three honorees got their due, but Jackie Chan finally getting his Oscar is the headline here.<\/span><\/p>\n The montages are all going to be like this, huh? One montage after another about acceptance speeches. Okay. All right.\u00a0WHY?!<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n God damn, that was an incisive presentation speech from Mark Rylance.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Supporting Actress<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:<\/strong> Naomie Harris,\u00a0Moonlight<\/em><\/p>\n Will Win:<\/strong> Viola Davis,\u00a0Fences<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Viola Davis,\u00a0Fences<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Hard-earned and well-won. There really wasn’t a bad actor in the bunch, though I have to wonder why Michelle Williams was nominated when she was barely in the film for ten minutes. It’s endearing to see how Davis is barely holding it together up there. She’s done so much already and I can’t wait to see what more she does.<\/span><\/p>\n Gotta say, I’m pleasantly surprised with how few acceptance speeches are overtly political. The night is still young, though.<\/span><\/p>\n Jimmy Kimmel: “[Angela Davis] just got an Emmy nomination for that speech.” I don’t know if he’s wrong.<\/span><\/p>\n No, turns out we get some other montages today: About stars and what inspired them. What a lovely idea, and a nice chance to humanize some of the people at the Dolby Theatre right now. And then Charlize Theron actually gets to present with Shirley McLaine and the two can pay tribute to each other. What a brilliant concept.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Foreign Language Film<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:<\/strong> No preference<\/p>\n Will Win:<\/strong>\u00a0The Salesman<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>The Salesman<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Wow, what a tough one to call. Turns out that betting on the previous winner was the right way to go. Also, the Academy gets to make an implicit statement against the Muslim travel ban (made explicit by the proxy acceptance speech, which is such a better practice than the earlier practice of “The Academy accepts this award on their behalf.”). Smoke ’em if you got ’em, folks. This is gonna be a long night.<\/span><\/p>\n God damn, it’s so great to see Sting performing something he didn’t write thirty years ago. Short but very sweet. Also, kudos on whomever had the balls to schedule that song immediately after\u00a0Best Foreign Feature, betting on who’d win.<\/span><\/p>\n Damn straight this took a long time to plan — how the hell do you get a tour bus within two miles of the Dolby Theatre on goddamn Oscar night without the passengers’ knowing?!<\/span><\/p>\n Best Animated Short<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:<\/strong>\u00a0Pearl<\/em><\/p>\n Will Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Piper<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Piper<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n Always bet on Pixar.<\/span><\/p>\n Saying that actors are migrant workers. Holy shit.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Animated Film<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:\u00a0<\/strong>Zootopia<\/em><\/p>\n Will Win:<\/strong>\u00a0Zootopia<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Zootopia<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n Well-deserved. I know a lot of people were pulling for\u00a0Kubo<\/em>, and rightly so, but this one was simply a marvel.<\/span><\/p>\n We’re bringing out\u00a0the\u00a050 Shades<\/em> stars? Seriously? Shame on the Academy for dignifying this franchise.<\/span><\/p>\n Best Production Design<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Should Win:<\/strong> Guy Hendrix Dyas and Gene Serdena,\u00a0Passengers<\/em><\/p>\n Will Win:<\/strong> David Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco,\u00a0La La Land<\/em><\/p>\n Did Win:\u00a0<\/strong>David Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco,\u00a0La La Land<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Again, there were no losers here. But given how the sound design categories went, I’m seriously kind of surprised that this one defaulted to\u00a0La La Land<\/em>. Also, it’s very sweet that this one is shared with a husband\/wife team.<\/span><\/p>\n Finally, somebody got played off! Somebody got the memo that this is going to run long!<\/span><\/p>\n You’ve been doing a great job so far, Kimmel. Don’t blow this punchline.<\/span><\/p>\n Gotta say, it’s a little relieved to see people so underdressed here. Bringing in people to actually meet the stars is a great touch. Though yes, it is a little embarrassed that people won’t put down their cell phones even when they’re on live TV.<\/span><\/p>\n Kimmel is in his element here, and it looks like everyone’s having a fantastic time. This is just amazing.<\/span><\/p>\n Hi, Guillermo! Glad to see Jimmy brought you along for the ride.<\/span><\/p>\n I just recognized the commercial outro music as “Nowhere Fast” from\u00a0Streets of Fire<\/em>. A totally obscure movie, and it wasn’t even the most famous song from that picture. These selections are all over the place, and I love it.<\/span><\/p>\n